• Graduate program
    • Why Tinbergen Institute?
    • Program Structure
    • Courses
    • Course Registration
    • Recent PhD Placements
    • Admissions
    • Facilities
  • Research
  • News
  • Events
    • Events Calendar
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
    • Events Archive
    • Summer School
      • Crash Course in Experimental Economics
      • Behavioral Macro and Complexity
      • Introduction in Genome-Wide Data Analysis
      • Econometric Methods for Forecasting and Data Science
  • Times

Hommes, C., Sonnemans, J., Tuinstra, J. and van de Velden, H. (2005). Coordination of expectations in asset pricing experiments Review of Financial Studies, 18(3):955--980.

  • Journal
    Review of Financial Studies

We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricing model. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equations, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions. Aggregate demand for the risky asset depends upon the forecasts of the participants. The realized price is then obtained from market equilibrium with feedback from six individual expectations. Realized prices differ significantly from fundamental values and typically exhibit oscillations around, or slow convergence to, this fundamental. In all groups participants coordinate on a common prediction strategy.