• Graduate program
    • Why Tinbergen Institute?
    • Program Structure
    • Courses
    • Course Registration
    • Recent PhD Placements
    • Admissions
    • Facilities
  • Research
  • News
  • Events
    • Events Calendar
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
    • Events Archive
    • Summer School
      • Introduction in Genome-Wide Data Analysis
      • Inequalities in Health and Healthcare
      • Crash Course in Experimental Economics
      • Econometric Methods for Forecasting and Data Science
      • Behavioral Macro and Complexity
  • Times

Harvey, A. and Koopman, S.J. (1993). Forecasting hourly electricity demand using time–varying splines Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(424):1228--1236.


  • Journal
    Journal of the American Statistical Association

A method for modeling a changing periodic pattern is developed. The use of time-varying splines enables this to be done relatively parsimoniously. The method is applied in a model used to forecast hourly electricity demand, with the periodic movements being intradaily or intraweekly. The full model contains other components, including a temperature response, which is also modeled using splines.