Harvey, A. and Koopman, S.J. (1993). Forecasting hourly electricity demand using time–varying splines Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(424):1228--1236.
JournalJournal of the American Statistical Association
A method for modeling a changing periodic pattern is developed. The use of time-varying splines enables this to be done relatively parsimoniously. The method is applied in a model used to forecast hourly electricity demand, with the periodic movements being intradaily or intraweekly. The full model contains other components, including a temperature response, which is also modeled using splines.