• Graduate program
  • Research
  • Summer School
  • Events
    • Summer School
      • Applied Public Policy Evaluation
      • Economics of Blockchain and Digital Currencies
      • Economics of Climate Change
      • From preference to choice: The Economic Theory of Decision-Making
      • Gender in Society
      • Business Data Science Summer School Program
    • Events Calendar
    • Events Archive
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • 16th Tinbergen Institute Annual Conference
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
  • News
  • Alumni
  • Magazine
Home | Events Archive | An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread Across Sectors in the United States
Seminar

An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread Across Sectors in the United States

  • Series
    Brown Bag Seminars General Economics
  • Speaker
    Robin Lumsdaine (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
  • Field
    Econometrics
  • Location
    Erasmus University Rotterdam, E-Building, Room EB-12
    Rotterdam
  • Date and time

    March 13, 2019
    12:00 - 13:00

Abstract

This paper develops a discrete-time epidemiological model for the spread of economic crises across sectors in the United States for the period 1952-2015. It is the first to use an epidemiological approach with macroeconomic (Flow of Funds) data. An extension of the usual one-period Markov model to a two-period setting incorporates the concept of downturns that may either precede a crisis or from which the sector may recover and avert a crisis. The results indicate that the nonfinancial business and private depository institutions and money market mutual funds sectors are highly contagious while the monetary authority is the least contagious.

Joint with Eva F. Janssens and Sebastiaan H.L.C.G. Vermeulen