More Robust Estimators for Panel Bartik Designs, With An Application to the Effect of Chinese Imports on US Employment
Speaker(s)Clement De Chaisemartin (SciencesPo, France and University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB), currently on leave))
LocationUniversity of Amsterdam, Room E5.22
Date and time
May 12, 2023
12:30 - 13:30
We show that panel Bartik regressions identify non-convex combinations of location-and-period-specific treatment effects. Thus, those regressions could be biased in the presence of heterogeneous effects. We propose an alternative instrumental-variable correlated-random-coefficient (IV-CRC) estimator, that is more robust to heterogeneous effects. We revisit Autor et al. (2013), who use a panel Bartik regression to estimate the effect of imports from China on US manufacturing employment. Their regression estimates a highly non-convex combination of effects, and our CRC estimator is small and insignificant: without assuming constant effects, one cannot conclude that imports from China negatively affected US manufacturing employment.