A Dutch Agent Based Model calibrated with Microdata
SeriesResearch Master Defense
Speaker(s)Steven Hoekstra , Steven Hoekstra
LocationTinbergen Institute Amsterdam, room 1.60 (Hybrid)
Date and time
August 23, 2023
13:30 - 15:00
We develop an extension of the stock flow consistent agent based model of Poledna et al. (2023). We calibrate the model for the Dutch economy by introducing the household optimization problem of Kaplan et al. (2018) which allows for varying marginal propensities to consume. We analyse the model by means of a forecasting exercise where we compare the model to the base version of the agent based model and to a benchmark VAR model. Furthermore, we analyze the internal validity of the model by means of comparing the auto- and cross-correlations of the model to the data. Finally, we run a robustness check of the model by means of a sensitivity analysis. We find that the model match the cross-correlations and auto-correlations of the data well for some variables but less well for other variables. The extended model has similar forecast performance to the base model and the benchmark model.