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0DTE option pricing

  • Location
    Erasmus University Rotterdam, E building, room ET-18
  • Date and time

    December 07, 2023
    12:00 - 13:00

The market for ultra short-tenor (zero days-to-expiry or 0DTE) options has grown exponentially over the last few years. In 2023, daily volume in 0DTEs reached over 45% of overall daily option volume. After briefly describing this exploding new market, we present a novel pricing formula designed to capture the shape of the 0DTE implied volatility surface. Pricing hinges on an Edgeworth-like expansion of the conditional characteristic function of the continuous portion of the underlying’s price process. The expansion shifts probability mass from an otherwise locally Gaussian return density by adding time-varying skewness (through leverage) and time-varying kurtosis (through the volatility-of-volatility). The expansion is local in time and, therefore, naturally suited to price ultra short-tenor instruments, like 0DTEs. We document considerable (1) price and (2) hedging improvements as compared to state-of-the-art specifications. We conclude by providing suggestive results on nearly instantaneous predictability by estimating 0DTE-based return/variance risk premia.