The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany
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SeriesResearch on Monday
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Speaker(s)Stefan Bauernschuster (University of Passau, Germany)
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FieldEmpirical Microeconomics
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LocationErasmus University Rotterdam, Campus Woudestein, Polak 2-18
Rotterdam -
Date and time
February 26, 2024
11:30 - 12:30
Abstract
How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.Joint paper with Matthias Blum, Erik Hornung and Christoph Koenig.