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Home | Events | House on Fire: Climate Risk, Mortgages, and Monetary Policy
Seminar

House on Fire: Climate Risk, Mortgages, and Monetary Policy

  • Series
    TI Finance Research Seminars
  • Speaker(s)
    Diana Bonfim (Bank of Portugal and Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics, Portugal)
  • Field
    Finance, Accounting and Finance
  • Location
    Tinbergen Institute, room 1.01
    Amsterdam
  • Date and time

    November 19, 2025
    12:45 - 14:00

Abstract

We study whether exposure to climate risk affects banks' mortgage-lending decisions. Using detailed wildfire hazard and occurrence data in Portugal, we find evidence that banks charge higher risk premiums for mortgages originating in at-risk but not directly affected areas. This result is established by exploiting the variation in mortgage pricing within very granular bins of mortgages and debtors with similar characteristics, which are differentially exposed to wildfire risk. We investigate whether monetary policy affects the pricing of climate risk. We find that when monetary policy tightens, the climate risk premium increases.