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Home | Events | Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines
Seminar

Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines

  • Location
    Erasmus University Rotterdam, Campus Woudestein, T3-06
    Rotterdam
  • Date and time

    November 20, 2025
    12:00 - 13:00

Abstract

We test whether a conditional cash lottery (CCL) targets prevention on those exhibiting inverse S probability distortion who are predicted to undervalue prevention and overvalue a lottery. We randomly offer older Filipinos a CCL requiring cardiovascular risk screening and elicit probability distortion and risk perceptions. Consistent with theory, inverse S types perceiving intermediate cardiovascular risk are 3 percentage points (60%) less likely than non-distorters to have had a check-up at baseline. The CCL increases the probability by 47 points among all types. Compliance is not significantly higher for inverse S types, which does not support the hypothesized targeting.