Confidence and College Applications: Evidence from a Randomized Intervention
-
Series
-
SpeakerRustamdjan Hakimov
-
FieldBehavioral Economics
-
LocationTinbergen Institute, Roeterseiland campus, E0.04
Amsterdam -
Date and time
November 19, 2026
12:00 - 13:00
Abstract
This paper examines how student confidence influences college applications. Using experiments with over 2,000 French students, we show that top female and low-SES students significantly underestimate their academic rank compared to male and high-SES peers. Matching survey data with administrative records, we show that this underconfidence impacts college choices. A randomized intervention correcting students' rank perceptions offset this effect and encouraged underconfident students to apply to more prestigious programs, especially females and low-SES students. In our sample, the intervention reduced the gender gap in elite college admissions by 72% and the social gap by 95% without increasing dropout rates. Joint papers with Renke Schmacker and Camille Terrier.