Study by Stanislav Avdeev on how conflicts shape cross‑border dispute resolution published in the Journal of Public Economics

International trade depends on the expectation that courts will protect commercial interests when disputes arise. With the growing number of international conflicts, it is crucial to know whether this expectation is met in practice. We examine the effect of the 2014 annexation of Crimea on the enforcement rate of foreign decisions by Russian and Ukrainian judges. We assemble novel data on the entire universe of Russian and Ukrainian court decisions concerning the enforcement of foreign decisions resolving cross-border commercial disputes. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the enforcement rate of Ukrainian (Russian) decisions in Russia (Ukraine) fell by 26% (33%) after the annexation. We show that courts increasingly justified refusals through discretionary legal grounds and undue-notification claims. Our findings provide the first causal evidence that international conflict affects both judicial decision-making and compliance with commercial treaties.

 

Building on this research into how international conflict affects cross-border dispute resolution, Dmitrii’s new paper, forthcoming in the Netherlands International Law Review, examines whether armed conflict can justify refusing the recognition and enforcement of foreign arbitral awards. The article develops a legal framework for assessing wartime public policy objections, arguing that conflict alone should not undermine international enforcement, except in a narrow range of cases involving genuine national security concerns.

 

Article citation

Dmitrii Shchetinin and Stanislav Avdeev (2026), 'The impact of international conflict on cross-border commercial dispute resolution', Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 260, August 2026, doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105708.