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Franses, \.H. (2020). Testing for bias in forecasts for independent binary outcomes Applied Economics Letters, 28(15):1336.

  • Journal
    Applied Economics Letters
View publication

This letter deals with a test on forecast bias in predicting independent binary outcomes, where the outcomes are either 1 or 0, and the predictions are probabilities. The test concerns two parameter restrictions in a simple logit model. Size-corrected power experiments show remarkable power.