• Graduate program
    • Why Tinbergen Institute?
    • Program Structure
    • Courses
    • Course Registration
    • Facilities
    • Admissions
    • Recent PhD Placements
  • Research
  • News
  • Events
    • Summer School
      • Summer School
      • Behavioral Macro and Complexity
      • Climate Change
      • Econometrics and Data Science Methods for Business, Economics and Finance
      • Networks in Micro- and Macroeconomics
      • Business Data Science Summer School Program
    • Events Calendar
    • Events Archive
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • Conference: Consumer Search and Markets
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
  • Summer School
  • Alumni
  • Times

Peters, F. and Kucinskas, S. (2023). Measuring Under- and Overreaction in Expectation Formation Review of Economics and Statistics, :.


  • Journal
    Review of Economics and Statistics

We develop a framework for measuring under- and overreaction in expectation formation. The basic insight is that under- and overreaction to new information is identified (up to sign) by the impulse response function of forecast errors. This insight leads to a widely applicable measurement procedure. The procedure yields estimates of under- and overreaction to different shocks at various horizons. In an application to inflation expectations, we find that forecasters underreact to aggregate shocks but overreact to idiosyncratic shocks. Finally, we illustrate how our approach can be used to (i) calibrate theoretical models; and (ii) shed light on existing empirical puzzles.