• Graduate program
    • Why Tinbergen Institute?
    • Program Structure
    • Courses
    • Course Registration
    • Facilities
    • Admissions
    • Recent PhD Placements
  • Research
  • News
  • Events
    • Summer School
      • Summer School
      • Behavioral Macro and Complexity
      • Climate Change
      • Networks in Micro- and Macroeconomics
      • Business Data Science Summer School Program
    • Events Calendar
    • Events Archive
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • Conference: Consumer Search and Markets
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
  • Summer School
  • Alumni
  • Times

Boswijk, H., Cavaliere, G., Georgiev, I. and Rahbek, A. (2021). Bootstrapping non-stationary stochastic volatility Journal of Econometrics, 224(1):161--180.


  • Journal
    Journal of Econometrics

In this paper we investigate to what extent the bootstrap can be applied to conditional mean models, such as regression or time series models, when the volatility of the innovations is random and possibly non-stationary. In fact, the volatility of many economic and financial time series displays persistent changes and possible non-stationarity. However, the theory of the bootstrap for such models has focused on deterministic changes of the unconditional variance and little is known about the performance and the validity of the bootstrap when the volatility is driven by a non-stationary stochastic process. This includes near-integrated exogenous volatility processes as well as nearintegrated GARCH processes, where the conditional variance has a diffusion limit; a further important example is the case where volatility exhibits infrequent jumps. Thispaper fills this gap in the literature by developing conditions for bootstrap validity in time series and regression models with non-stationary, stochastic volatility. We show that in such cases the distribution of bootstrap statistics (conditional on the data) is random in the limit. Consequently, the conventional approaches to proofs of bootstrap consistency, based on the notion of weak convergence in probability of the bootstrap statistic, fail to deliver the required validity results. Instead, we use the concept of {\textquoteleft}weak convergence in distribution{\textquoteright} to develop and establish novel conditions for validity of the wild bootstrap, conditional on the volatility process. We apply our results to several testing problems in the presence of non-stationary stochastic volatility, including testing in a location model, testing for structural change using CUSUM-type functionals, and testing for a unit root in autoregressive models. Importantly, we work under sufficient conditions for bootstrap validity that include the absence of statistical leverage effects, i.e., correlation between the error process and its future conditional variance. The results of the paper are illustrated using Monte Carlo simulations, which indicate that a wild bootstrap approach leads to size control even in small samples.