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Seminar

Disruption And Credit Markets

  • Location
    Tinbergen Institute
    Amsterdam
  • Date and time

    September 11, 2019
    12:45 - 14:00

In the past thirty years, defaults on corporate bonds have been substantially higher than the historical average. We show that this increase in credit risk can be largely attributed to an increase in the rate at which new and fast-growing firms displace incumbents (a phenomenon sometimes referred to as ‘disruptive innovation’). Industries with a lager presence of firms newly listed on the stock market, as well as industries that receive funding from venture capital, have a higher loss of revenue market share for established firms and subsequently see a rise in corporate bond defaults. Patent filings by individuals as opposed to corporations also predict defaults. These results are not affected by inclusion of controls for industry exposure to offshore manufacturing.
Joint work with Victoria Ivashina (Harvard University, United States).