Child Penalty Estimation and Mothers’ Age at First Birth
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Series
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SpeakerValentina Melentyeva (Tilburg University)
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FieldEmpirical Microeconomics
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LocationTinbergen Institute, Room 1.01
Amsterdam -
Date and time
May 20, 2025
15:30 - 16:30
Abstract
Motherhood continues to pose significant challenges to
women’s careers, and a correct assessment of its effects is crucial for
understanding the persistent gender inequality in the labor market. We show
that the prevalent approach to estimate post-birth earnings losses – so called
“child penalties” – is prone to yield substantially biased results. We
demonstrate that the biases stem from conventional event studies pooling
together first-time mothers of all ages, without considering their distinct
characteristics and the varying impact of motherhood. To address the biases, we
propose a novel approach that accounts for the heterogeneity by building upon
recent advancements in the econometric literature on difference-in-differences
models. Applying it to administrative data from Germany, we find substantially
larger estimates of earnings losses after childbirth (by 25-30%), indicating
that the costs of motherhood and related gender gaps in Germany are even larger
than previously thought. Moreover, we document that effects and their
interpretation differ significantly depending on maternal age at birth. Our
results demonstrate that heterogeneity of effects by age is more than just a
source of bias – it is an opportunity for better understanding of motherhood
impact. Joint paper with Lukas Riedel.