The Quality of School Track Assignment Decisions by Teachers

Abstract

We study the quality of secondary school track assignment decisions using a regression discontinuity design. In the Netherlands, track assignment is guided by several test score thresholds that generate suggested track levels. However, because primary school teachers retain full discretion over the assignment, they are not obliged to follow these recommendations—and often do not. We interpret these test-based recommendations largely as a nudge that should only influence decisions at the margin: in cases where teachers are indifferent between two track options. A model of optimal track assignment under uncertainty predicts that reassignments triggered by such nudges should have only small negative long-term consequences. To assess this prediction, we propose a flexible causal framework that separates, organizes, and partially identifies tracking effects. Our findings reveal that nudge-induced reassignments have strong positive effects, suggesting that teachers either fail to hold rational expectations or do not maximize expected long-term individual outcomes when making assignment decisions.