Population Centers and Coordination: Evidence from County-Seat Wars
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Series
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Speaker(s)Amrita Kulka (University of Warwick, United Kingdom)
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FieldSpatial Economics
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LocationVrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, HG-13A33
Amsterdam -
Date and time
March 12, 2026
12:00 - 13:00
Abstract
When and how historical shocks select spatial equilibria from among plausible alternatives remains poorly understood. We study this process using a regression discontinuity design exploiting close elections for “county seats” (capitals) in the frontier United States. These political contests coordinated incoming migrants’ settlement choices across otherwise similar locations. Winning towns quickly became their counties’ population centers and experienced agglomeration benefits in amenities and income associated with larger cities. Local public sectors were historically small and not significant for these processes. Coordination was limited to counties’ early histories, with little possible thereafter. The results support models of coordination through self-fulfilling expectations. Joint paper with Cory Smith.