Artūras Juodis and Simas Kučinskas receive Vladas Jurgutis Award
Simas Kučinskas and Artūras Juodis were granted the 2023 Vladas Jurgutis award of the Bank of Lithuania for their research on an innovative system for noise quantification in economic expectations.
In their paper 'Quantifying noise in survey expectations' (published in Quantitative Economics) the researchers evaluate the level of noise in inflation forecasts by applying econometric methods. Previous research has almost exclusively analysed the bias of predictions, i.e. systemic errors, whereas in this work Juodis and Kučinskas show that noise – non-systemic errors – is as important as systemic errors and accounts for up to 30% of all inflation forecast errors.
The Vladas Jurgutis Award (€10,000) is granted for significant scientific research works of Lithuanian economists or foreign economists linked with Lithuanian education institutions carried out within the last five years – published scientific papers, monographs or other books.
Simas Kučinskas and Artūras Juodis are Tinbergen Institute research master and PhD alumni. Artūras is currently Tinbergen Institute research fellow and an Assiciate Professor at the University of Amsterdam (as of August 2023). Simas is leading a team of data professionals at Vinted Go and a visiting scholar at Humboldt University, Germany.