• Graduate Programs
  • Research
  • Browse our Courses
  • Events
    • Events Calendar
    • Events Archive
    • Summer School
      • Applied Public Policy Evaluation
      • Deep Learning
      • Development Economics
      • Economics of Blockchain and Digital Currencies
      • Economics of Climate Change
      • The Economics of Crime
      • Foundations of Machine Learning with Applications in Python
      • From Preference to Choice: The Economic Theory of Decision-Making
      • Inequalities in Health and Healthcare
      • Marketing Research with Purpose
      • Markets with Frictions
      • Modern Toolbox for Spatial and Functional Data
      • Sustainable Finance
      • Tuition Fees and Payment
      • Business Data Science Summer School Program
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • 2026 Tinbergen Institute Opening Conference
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
  • News
  • Summer School
    • Applied Public Policy Evaluation
    • Deep Learning
    • Development Economics
    • Economics of Blockchain and Digital Currencies
    • Economics of Climate Change
    • The Economics of Crime
    • Foundations of Machine Learning with Applications in Python
    • From Preference to Choice: The Economic Theory of Decision-Making
    • Inequalities in Health and Healthcare
    • Marketing Research with Purpose
    • Markets with Frictions
    • Modern Toolbox for Spatial and Functional Data
    • Sustainable Finance
    • Tuition Fees and Payment
  • Alumni

Diecidue, E. and van de Ven, J. (2008). Aspiration level, probability of success and failure, and expected utility International Economic Review, 49(2):683--700.


  • Journal
    International Economic Review

Aspiration levels are a relevant aspect of decision making. We develop a model that includes the overall probabilities of success and failure relative to the aspiration level into an expected utility representation. This turns out to be equivalent to expected utility with a discontinuous utility function. We give a behavioral foundation to the proposed model and provide conditions to determine the relative weights of the overall probabilities of success and failure. An aspiration level reinforces loss aversion, can account for simultaneous risk-averse and risk-seeking behavior, and can explain choices violating the mean-variance approach.