Li, M. and Koopman, S. (2021). Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation-based estimation and signal extraction Journal of Applied Econometrics, 36(5):614--627.
-
Affiliated author
-
Publication year2021
-
JournalJournal of Applied Econometrics
The unobserved components time series model with stochastic volatility has gained much interest in econometrics, especially for the purpose of modelling and forecasting inflation. We present a feasible simulated maximum likelihood method for parameter estimation from a classical perspective. The method can also be used for evaluating the marginal likelihood function in a Bayesian analysis. We show that our simulation-based method is computationally feasible, for both univariate and multivariate models. We assess the performance of the method in a Monte Carlo study. In an empirical study, we analyse U.S. headline inflation using different univariate and multivariate model specifications.