A study by Robert Dur and Arjan Non shows Dutch voters support public policy experiments to assess real-world impacts

Their findings reveal strong voter support for policy experimentation, particularly when the effectiveness of a policy is uncertain. For example, Dutch voters approved testing policies on issues such as unemployment programs and tax evasion, signaling broad acceptance of experimental approaches under conditions of uncertainty. Notably, only a small proportion of respondents expressed strong opposition, citing concerns about fairness and potential delays.

The researchers also surveyed Dutch politicians, finding that some initially have hesitations towards policy experiments. However, they were open to revising their stance when informed of voters’ supportive attitudes.

Abstract

In many public policy areas, randomised policy experiments can greatly contribute to our knowledge of the effects of policies and can thus help to improve public policy. However, policy experiments are not very common. This paper studies whether a lack of appreciation for policy experiments among voters may be the reason for this. Collecting survey data representative of the Dutch electorate, we find clear evidence contradicting this view. Voters strongly support policy experimentation and particularly so when they do not hold a strong opinion about the policy. In a subsequent survey experiment among a selected group of Dutch politicians, we find that politicians conform their expressed opinion about policy experiments to what we tell them the actual opinion of voters is.

Article citation

Robert Dur and Arjan Non, Paul Prottung, and Benedetta Ricci . October 2024. "Who's Afraid of Policy Experiments?" The Economic Journal (October 2024), doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae090