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Tol, R. (2012). On the uncertainty about the total economic impact of climate change Environmental and Resource Economics, 53(1):97--116.

  • Journal
    Environmental and Resource Economics
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This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about \$29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year. {\textcopyright} 2012 The Author(s).