![To pool or not to pool: What i?s a good strategy for parameter estimation and forecasting in panel regressions?](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_0883-7252-19.jpg)
![placeholder](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/person_profile_image_top/media/person/image/5c360a6356a91709aeab8d4a_paaprichard-1.jpg)
Richard Paap
Key publications
![To pool or not to pool: What i?s a good strategy for parameter estimation and forecasting in panel regressions?](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_0883-7252-19.jpg)
![Real-time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/383b28e72f2392dca6bad08ddd834c7b_0735-0015-14.jpg)
![A Rank-Ordered Logit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Ranking Capabilities](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_be0ef8149710874da86c50527127fca8_0883-7252.jpg)
![Editorial Introduction for the Annals Issue of the Journal of Econometrics on Bayesian Models, Methods and Applications](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/c233ce3f29c02dcc48f31c9d82749816_0304-4076-15.jpg)
![Introduction to the Special Issue on New Econometric Models in Marketing](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_0883-7252-11.jpg)
![Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_dfee89fc9557497d0a060cba674fcc83_0883-7252.jpg)
![Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/383b28e72f2392dca6bad08ddd834c7b_81b42a283bb708ef5338061c43d27c56_0735-0015.jpg)
![Explaining individual response using aggregated data](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/c233ce3f29c02dcc48f31c9d82749816_960daa70cc7ada2f562d7307ed5932f7_0304-4076.jpg)
![Seasonality and non-linear price effects in scanner-data based market-response models](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/c233ce3f29c02dcc48f31c9d82749816_31509d70d9a3e014c6d3c22eb0262dbc_0304-4076.jpg)
![Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition.](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/c233ce3f29c02dcc48f31c9d82749816_4f8a732ec34981c45d2fe004900e9229_0304-4076.jpg)
![Modeling purchases as repeated events](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/383b28e72f2392dca6bad08ddd834c7b_c2dd5748138ec2ba1390d5ef0a6a96e5_0735-0015.jpg)
![Deriving Target Selection Rules from Endogenously Selected Samples](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_126028963192f641b76e0bb58cc76cfa_0883-7252.jpg)
![Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to U.S. consumption and income](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/383b28e72f2392dca6bad08ddd834c7b_69e783b92cb187ca2f1ea60c85756971_0735-0015.jpg)
![Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to us unemployment](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_b650798cafee714fe6e11b414a024dfe_0883-7252.jpg)
![Modelling and forecasting level shifts in absolute returns](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_959d014bee2ece281294bc078c3b11c4_0883-7252.jpg)
![A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/c233ce3f29c02dcc48f31c9d82749816_0304-4076-18.jpg)
![Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/c233ce3f29c02dcc48f31c9d82749816_0304-4076-51.jpg)
![A dynamic multinomial probit model for brand choice with different long-run and short-run effects of marketing-mix variables](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/36f6eddc164132aeb50d93bed4a16b1c_cc70bdb1a88729eb2bcb3adf1537d58e_0883-7252.jpg)
![Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts](https://tinbergen.nl/media/cache/publication_detail/media/publication/image/c233ce3f29c02dcc48f31c9d82749816_5c022a2b70872e13130eaacd653b5e04_0304-4076.jpg)
List of publications
Wang, W., Zhang, X.(. and Paap, R. (2019). To pool or not to pool: What i?s a good strategy for parameter estimation and forecasting in panel regressions? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 34(5):724--745.
Bel, K., Fok, D. and Paap, R. (2018). Parameter Estimation in Multivariate Logit Models with Many Binary Choices Econometric Reviews, 37(5):534--550.
Nibbering, D., Paap, R. and van der Wel, M. (2018). What do professional forecasters actually predict? International Journal of Forecasting, 34(2):288--311.
Franses, P.H., Legerstee, R.(. and Paap, R. (2017). Estimating loss functions of experts Applied Economics, 49(4):386--396.
Bel, K. and Paap, R. (2016). Modeling the Impact of Forecast-based Regime Switches on US Inflation International Journal of Forecasting, 32(4):1306--1316.
Silva Lourenco, C., Gijsbrechts, E. and Paap, R. (2015). The Impact of Category Prices on Store Price Image Formation: An Empirical Analysis Journal of Marketing Research, 52(2):200--216.
Cakmakli, C.(., Paap, R. and van Dijk, D. (2013). Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37:2195--2216.
Groen, J.(., Paap, R. and Ravazzolo, F. (2013). Real-time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 31(1):29--44.
Paap, R. and Franses, P.H. (2013). Common Large Innovations Across Nonlinear Time Series Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 17(3):251--263.
van den Hauwe, S., Paap, R. and van Dijk, D. (2013). Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions Journal of Macroeconomics, 37:19--40.
Basturk, N., Paap, R. and van Dijk, D. (2012). Structural differences in economic growth: An endogenous clustering approach Applied Economics, 44(1):119--134.
Fidrmuc, J., Paap, R., Roosenboom, P. and Teunissen, T. (2012). One size does not fit all: Selling firms to private equity versus strategic acquirers Journal of Corporate Finance, 18(4):828--848.
Fok, D., Paap, R. and van Dijk, A. (2010). A Rank-Ordered Logit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Ranking Capabilities Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27(5):831--846.
Geweke, J., Koop, G. and Paap, R. (2012). Editorial Introduction for the Annals Issue of the Journal of Econometrics on Bayesian Models, Methods and Applications Journal of Econometrics, 171(2):99--100.
van Dijk, A., Franses, P.H., Paap, R. and van Dijk, D. (2011). Modeling Regional House Prices Applied Economics, 43(17):2097--2110.
van Nierop, E., Bronnenberg, B., Paap, R., Franses, P.H. and Wedel, M. (2010). Retrieving Unobserved Consideration Sets from Household Panel Data Journal of Marketing Research, 47(1):63--74.
Chintagunta, P., Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (2009). Introduction to the Special Issue on New Econometric Models in Marketing Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(3):375--376.
Fok, D. and Paap, R. (2009). Modeling category-level purchase timing with brand-level marketing variables Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(3):469--489.
Paap, R., Segers, R. and van Dijk, D. (2009). Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs? Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27(4):528--543.
Brouwer, J., Paap, R. and Viaene, J.M. (2008). The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(2):188--208.
Franses, P.H., van der Leij, M. and Paap, R. (2008). A Simple Test for GARCH Against a Stochastic Volatility Model Journal of Financial Econometrics, 6(3):291--306.
van Dijk, B. and Paap, R. (2008). Explaining individual response using aggregated data Journal of Econometrics, 146(1):1--9.
Fok, D., Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (2007). Seasonality and non-linear price effects in scanner-data based market-response models Journal of Econometrics, 138(1):231--251.
Paap, R. (2007). Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics by John Geweke International Journal of Forecasting, 23:531--531.
Kleibergen, F.(. and Paap, R. (2006). Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition. Journal of Econometrics, 133(1):97--126.
Bijwaard, G., Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (2006). Modeling purchases as repeated events Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 24(4):487--502.
Donkers, B., Paap, R., Jonker, J. and Franses, P.H. (2006). Deriving Target Selection Rules from Endogenously Selected Samples Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21(5):549--562.
Fok, D., Horvath, C., Paap, R. and Franses, P.H. (2006). A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects of price changes Journal of Marketing Research, 43(3):443--461.
Paap, R., van Nierop, E., van Heerde, H., Wedel, M., Franses, P.H. and Alsem, K. (2005). Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of 'don't know' in a two-stage model for voter choice International Journal of Forecasting, 21(1):53--71.
Paap, R., Franses, P.H. and van Dijk, D. (2005). Does Africa grow slower than Asia, Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a new data-based classification method Journal of Development Economics, 77(2):553--570.
Franses, P.H., Paap, R. and Vroomen, B. (2004). Forecasting unemployment using an autoregression with censored latent effects parameters International Journal of Forecasting, 20(2):255--271.
Paap, R. and van Dijk, H. (2003). Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to U.S. consumption and income Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21(4):547--563.
Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (2002). Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to us unemployment Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17:347--366.
Franses, P.H., van der Leij, M. and Paap, R. (2002). Modelling and forecasting level shifts in absolute returns Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17(5):606--616.
van Dijk, D., Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (2002). A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment Journal of Econometrics, 110(2):135--165.
Kleibergen, F.(. and Paap, R. (2002). Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration Journal of Econometrics, 111(2):223--249.
Paap, R. and Franses, P.H. (2000). A dynamic multinomial probit model for brand choice with different long-run and short-run effects of marketing-mix variables Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15(6):717--744.
Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (2000). Modelling day-of-the-week seasonality in the S&P 500 index Applied Economics, 10:483--488.
Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (1999). Does seasonal adjustment influence the dating if business cycle turning points? Journal of Macroeconomics, 21:79--92.
Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (1999). Does seasonality influence the dating of business cycle turning points? Journal of Macroeconomics, 21:79--92.
Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (1999). On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions Econometric Reviews, 18:271--286.
Paap, R. and van Dijk, H. (1998). Distribution and mobility of wealth of nations European Economic Review, 42:1269--1293.
Franses, P.H., Hoek, H. and Paap, R. (1997). Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts Journal of Econometrics, 78:359--380.
Franses, P.H., Hoek, H. and Paap, R. (1997). Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series International Journal of Forecasting, 13:355--366.
Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (1995). Seasonality and stochastic trends in German consumption and income Empirical Economics, 20:109--132.
Franses, P.H. and Paap, R. (1994). Model selection in periodic autoregressions Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 56:421--439.