Offerman, T., Sonnemans, J., \van de Kuilen\, G. and Wakker, P. (2009). A truth serum for non-Bayesians : correcting proper scoring rules for risk attitudes Review of Economic Studies, 76(4):1461--1489.
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Affiliated authors
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Publication year2009
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JournalReview of Economic Studies
Proper scoring rules provide convenient and highly efficient tools for incentive-compatible elicitations of subjective beliefs. As traditionally used, however, they are valid only under expected value maximization. This paper shows how they can be generalized to modern ('non-expected utility') theories of risk and ambiguity, yielding mutual benefits: users of scoring rules can benefit from the empirical realism of non-expected utility, and analysts of ambiguity attitudes can benefit from efficient measurements using proper scoring rules. An experiment demonstrates the feasibility of our generalization.